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Democrats, UNC basketball fans have much in common
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Published: April 15, 2009
What do Carolina Tar Heel basketball fans and North Carolina Democrats have in common?
Their joy of winning is fading into worry about next year.
Even with cutbacks, big newspapers still manage to give worried basketball fans a daily dose of speculation about the prospects for next year's teams. But because government and political reporting resources have not fared as well at the big papers, we sometimes have to look other places for the analysis and commentary we once got everyday in the big city papers.
One of the best sources for relevant information and careful analysis is The Program on Public Life at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. It is a small organization led by former News & Observer journalist Ferrel Guillory. One of its missions is to help the university and its faculty serve the public "by informing the public agenda and nurturing leadership."
After every important election, the Program's staff gathers and organizes election results and polling data so that it is accessible and understandable.
The Program's new report on the 2008 election in its publication, "Data-Net," is available on line at http://southnow.org/.
Here are some of its insights:
1. The 2008 election in North Carolina was "Tide-Changing." First, Barack Obama's close victory in the North Carolina presidential contest broke a seven-election string of Republican victories in our state. Second, Kay Hagan's victory was the first time a Democrat has won a U.S. Senate election in a presidential year since Sam Ervin won in 1968. Third, Beverly Perdue broke a 300-year male monopoly on the North Carolina governor's office.
2. Although a majority of older voters (those over 40) supported Republicans in 2008, younger voters trended Democrat. Those between 18 and 29 gave overwhelming support to Democratic candidates (Obama-73 percent, Perdue-70 percent, Hagan-68 percent).
3. Minority voters tend to vote Democratic, usually overwhelmingly. Nevertheless a Democratic candidate must get substantial support from white voters to have a chance to win. A rule of thumb in North Carolina politics is that a Democratic candidate must get at least 40 percent of the white vote to have a chance to win. In 2008, however, the three top Democratic candidates each won with less than 40 percent white support. (Obama-35 percent, Perdue-36 percent, Hagan-39 percent).
4. Lost in the shuffle of the close victories by Obama and Perdue may have been the overwhelming win by Hagan over incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole. This time last year, some of North Carolina's most respected political observers assured us that Dole was unbeatable.
5. Although the North Carolina mountain region has pockets of strong Democratic support, it retains some of its historical Republican leanings. If the 2008 elections had been restricted to the 23 mountain counties, gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory would have won a solid victory—and presidential candidate John McCain a landslide.
6. On the other hand, notwithstanding pockets of strong Republican support, Eastern North Carolina gave Democrats its support this year. If the 2008 elections had been limited to the 40 counties in the east, Obama would have won a close victory and Perdue a landslide.
7. Obama's and the Democratic statewide majorities in 2008 got big boosts in the state's urban centers—Charlotte, Winston-Salem, Greensboro and the Research Triangle. Without strong support for Democratic candidates in these heavily populated areas, the results of the 2008 election would have been quite different.
8. If there is good news for Republicans, it is this: Notwithstanding the Democratic victories in 2008, North Carolina is solidly competitive, with neither party having assurance of victory in any statewide election. In polls associated with the 2008 election, voters identified themselves as 41 percent Democratic, 31 percent Republican, and 28 percent Independent.
So while Democrats, like Carolina basketball fans, enjoy their recent victories, they should remember that next time is another time.
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